"There are three substantial issues which weaken both the credibility and projections in this report from George Osborne and the UK Treasury.
"First, the mind-set of the people behind it. George Osborne’s views are well known and has always been a political rather than economic Chancellor. This Treasury study is no different, designed not to inform but to achieve a political objective. The report has been produced and released with campaigning considerations and calculations in mind.
"The Treasury is not a place to work if you are a Eurorealist right now. In fact, the Chancellor’s politicisation of the Treasury and his trashing of even its pseudo independence and transfer of economic research rigour to the Office for Budget Responsibility, will have negative impacts for Britain’s economic policy making well beyond 23 June. It is noticeable that the OBR did not issue this report.
"Second, the Report’s base assumptions are questionable at best and useless at worst. The whole premise of the report for example seems to be that a ‘Brexit Britain’ will be cast adrift into some sort of isolationist orbit outside of the global trading system. That no countries will want to trade with the UK either because they are angry with us for choosing our own sovereignty rather than allowing European bureaucrats to negotiate on our behalf or because our treasure has suddenly become worthless to potential bi-Lateral trade partners. That if we Brexit, UK policymakers will be lethargic in pursuing an aggressive strategy of negotiating and signing bi-lateral trade deals which amplify the already substantial benefits that a Brexit Britain already has a founding member of the World Trade Organisation. The Treasury simply cannot envisage an Outward Looking, Global Trading Britain, post Brexit.
"Third, the report adopts the arrogant assumption of the Remain campaign that there would be decades of uncertainty if we Leave the EU. As a member of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, I can confidently say that the UK and its non-Euro denominated economy already faces years of uncertainty if it stays within a European Union which is dominated by members which must increase the pace of European political and fiscal integration if the Eurozone itself is to survive. Unlike the fallacious outcomes forecast in this biased Treasury report most objective observers can see these uncertainties already facing Britain today.
"In short, there are more potential benefits, less uncertainties in voting Leave on 23 June than if we vote to Remain. It’s a pity that the UK Treasury was not tasked to investigate this scenario rather than disappearing down a forecasting rabbit hole dug by George Osborne.”